Starbucks Corporation

Key catalysts

• Transaction-led recovery

  Global comparable-store sales growth led by higher transactions indicates that the Back to Starbucks plan is rebuilding customer traffic, not relying only on price.

• North America momentum

  North America and U.S. comparable sales were supported by both transactions and ticket, providing a stronger base for the turnaround.

• Margin rebuilding

  Year-over-year non-GAAP operating-margin expansion suggests store execution and productivity initiatives can begin converting sales recovery into earnings growth.

Principal risks

• Turnaround execution

  The recovery still depends on consistent service, staffing, and store-level execution; uneven delivery could reverse recent traffic gains.

• China transition uncertainty

  Classifying the China retail operation as held for sale introduces transaction, separation, tax, and future economic-interest uncertainty.

• Store and input costs

  Labor investment, commodity costs, tariffs, and supply-chain volatility can absorb the operating leverage expected from higher comparable sales.

For the 13 weeks ended March 29, 2026, Starbucks reported transaction-led global and U.S. comparable-store sales growth, higher revenue, improved non-GAAP operating margin, and higher earnings per share, and raised its fiscal-year comparable-sales and non-GAAP EPS guidance.

Valuation interpretation

• A turnaround premium becomes more defensible if transaction growth and margin recovery persist across multiple quarters rather than reflecting a single-period rebound.
• Execution spending and uncertainty around the China transition justify caution until the earnings profile and retained economics become clearer.