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SBUXNASDAQ/consumer discretionary

Starbucks Corporation

$107.34Up+1,33 (+1,25%)
Research reviewed: 2026年7月12日 00:00 UTC
Research overview3-month price contextInvestment thesisKey catalystsLatest earnings researchRecent newsData and research sources

Research overview

Starbucks Corporation operates in Restaurants within the consumer discretionary sector. This profile tracks its company-specific earnings drivers, valuation conditions, and primary-source risks.

Eröffnung
106,19
Hoch
108,23
Tief
105,95
Marktkapitalisierung
122,34 Mrd.
KGV
81.94
52-Wochen-Hoch
--
Dividende
2.340%
Quartalsdividende
--

3-month price context

直近3か月の推移を表示し、フル調査ワークスペースに進む前に短期構造を把握できます。

Investment thesis

Base case
Global comparable-store sales growth led by higher transactions indicates that the Back to Starbucks plan is rebuilding customer traffic, not relying only on price. The base case remains conditional on turnaround execution staying manageable.
Bull case
Global comparable-store sales growth led by higher transactions indicates that the Back to Starbucks plan is rebuilding customer traffic, not relying only on price. North America and U.S. comparable sales were supported by both transactions and ticket, providing a stronger base for the turnaround. Year-over-year non-GAAP operating-margin expansion suggests store execution and productivity initiatives can begin converting sales recovery into earnings growth.
Bear case
The recovery still depends on consistent service, staffing, and store-level execution; uneven delivery could reverse recent traffic gains. Classifying the China retail operation as held for sale introduces transaction, separation, tax, and future economic-interest uncertainty. Labor investment, commodity costs, tariffs, and supply-chain volatility can absorb the operating leverage expected from higher comparable sales.
Thesis invalidation
Reassess the thesis if the recovery still depends on consistent service, staffing, and store-level execution; uneven delivery could reverse recent traffic gains.

Key catalysts

  • Transaction-led recovery

    Global comparable-store sales growth led by higher transactions indicates that the Back to Starbucks plan is rebuilding customer traffic, not relying only on price.

  • North America momentum

    North America and U.S. comparable sales were supported by both transactions and ticket, providing a stronger base for the turnaround.

  • Margin rebuilding

    Year-over-year non-GAAP operating-margin expansion suggests store execution and productivity initiatives can begin converting sales recovery into earnings growth.

Principal risks

  • Turnaround execution

    The recovery still depends on consistent service, staffing, and store-level execution; uneven delivery could reverse recent traffic gains.

  • China transition uncertainty

    Classifying the China retail operation as held for sale introduces transaction, separation, tax, and future economic-interest uncertainty.

  • Store and input costs

    Labor investment, commodity costs, tariffs, and supply-chain volatility can absorb the operating leverage expected from higher comparable sales.

Latest earnings research

FY2026 Q2

For the 13 weeks ended March 29, 2026, Starbucks reported transaction-led global and U.S. comparable-store sales growth, higher revenue, improved non-GAAP operating margin, and higher earnings per share, and raised its fiscal-year comparable-sales and non-GAAP EPS guidance.

Valuation interpretation

  • A turnaround premium becomes more defensible if transaction growth and margin recovery persist across multiple quarters rather than reflecting a single-period rebound.
  • Execution spending and uncertainty around the China transition justify caution until the earnings profile and retained economics become clearer.

Peer research

MCDCMGYUM

Recent news

Motley Fool · vor 10 Stunden

Starbucks Wants to Cut $400 Million in Software Costs. Toast Investors Should Pay Attention.

Zacks · vor 11 Stunden

BROS Trades at a Premium, Stock Up 30% in 3 Months: Buy Now or Wait?

Barchart · vorgestern

Starbucks Is Serving Up Your Coffee with a Side of AI. What That Means for SBUX Stock.

MarketBeat · vorgestern

Starbucks Builds Sovereign AI to Cut $400 Million in Software Costs

MarketBeat · vor 3 Tagen

Pushing the Edge: Super Micro Computer Reboots the AI Landscape

TheStreet · vor 3 Tagen

Starbucks tries something it failed at before

Data and research sources

Research updated: 2026年7月12日 00:00 UTC
3 verified sources
Starbucks Reports Q2 Fiscal Year 2026 ResultsStarbucks Corporation · earningsVerified

Fetched: 2026/7/12 0:00:00 UTC

Published: 2026/4/28 0:00:00

Open original source
Starbucks Investor RelationsStarbucks Corporation · companyVerified

Fetched: 2026/7/12 0:00:00 UTC

Open original source
Starbucks Form 10-Q for the Quarter Ended March 29, 2026U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission · filingVerified

Fetched: 2026/7/12 0:00:00 UTC

Published: 2026/4/28 0:00:00

Open original source

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